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The Pain of Getting Better

I've been blessed in my life to have needed very little surgery. A couple of the kid kinds of issues brought me some medical intervention. And then there was the knee surgeries that resulted from a ‘mind over matter' malfunction. ("No Mr. Patton, your knee was not designed to function in that manner" the surgeon informed me.) But both directly and then through acquaintances that did suffer major surgery: sometimes the surgery and healing are more painful than the disease.
We have all celebrated, in our own way, the news that the recession is over. And we can probably all quote our favorite leading economic indicator that proves this rather difficult to believe truth. I am happy to know that we have moved from a contracting economy to an expanding one. But double digit decline followed by an anemic 1.6% annualized growth in Q2 just doesn't feel good.
Wait! Just in! Growth revised upward: 1.7% annualized!
I hate to be pessimistic but I doubt that recent revision did anything to stir our economic image of fiscal health. These economic benchmarks have yet to make the pain go away. The analysis of our current recovery doesn't conform to our need for the leading man to respond to the miracle medication, win the heart of the young nurse and ride triumphantly away to the west into the setting sun.
Well folks, the surgery may be done but we're a long way from operating without the pain. And honestly, in some market segments, we've probably only undergone one or two of the several operations needed before we begin talking about reconstructive surgery.
Housing: Some good news, some news yet to be written. The lower priced houses are settling in nicely. There are even some signs of new construction for entry level and first move up kinds of products. This good sign is being challenged by the more mid-level housing still struggling mightily. Money is at an all time low for mortgages but so are values. And mortgage market availability above the FHA type level is still sluggish.
Jobs: The economy needs jobs. Unfortunately most businesses don't need employees. Productivity gains and the new reality of actually drawing more work out of the existing staffing levels don't generate many new positions for existing employers. And the slow formation of new business continues this self-limiting prophecy.
Commercial Real Estate: It is a buyers and renters market. There was a lot of commercial space available when things were still cooking. Now there are big holes where small businesses once were. Landlords are at the mercy of struggling tenants or vulture landlord neighbors. Prices are down, availability is up. If we could just get the entrepreneur to step up and expand during this time of opportunity!
But never forget that this is our ‘big one.' The current generations have been an audience to the generation that struggled and won its battle against the Great Depression. We have heard the stories and learned of the behavior of that generation as it tried to share its success against the terrible lessons of 1929 through the late 1930's. We may have even thought that it could never happen to us. But it is now our turn.
We are healing. But this will take recovery time and it will take fiscal discipline. The recovery we seek will not happen quickly. And if it did, the likely rush of inflation it could create might not be survivable. So take the financial medicine one day at a time. And be prepared to share with tomorrow's generation our lessons learned about how to avoid a similar disease.
